WTC Final: Will Australia Have an Advantage?

Australia, as the favorite, will face South Africa in the World Test Championship 2025 final at Lord's. The Australian team has 772 Test caps, double that of South Africa's 367. Eleven Australian players have played in England, with 120 appearances combined, while nine South African players have played 28 times.

The key factors that could decide the outcome are Australia's batters against South Africa's bowlers.

What Does the Venue Hold?

Both teams have a strong record at Lord's. Australia has an all-time win-loss ratio of 2.571, superior to England's 1.685. They have lost only two of 23 Tests at the venue since World War II, winning 12 and drawing nine. South Africa has won five of seven Tests at Lord's since their readmission, losing one and drawing one.

Pace vs Spin at Lord's Since 2022

Early Advantage – Make Hay While the Ball Shines

Three of the four matches at Lord's in the ongoing County Championship have produced results, all won by the team bowling first. In these four games, the team batting second took a first-innings lead of 99, 271, 111, and 42 respectively.

Steven Smith's Test Supremacy

Steven Smith has been imperious in Tests, with an average of 44.95 against South Africa, his lowest against any opponent in the format bar Bangladesh. He has scored 2255 runs in England, with 8 centuries, and has an average of 58.33 at Lord's.

Kagiso Rabada – South Africa's Premier Match-Winner

Kagiso Rabada has 57 dismissals of right-handed batters with balls seaming or swinging away across his Test career, at an average of 16.36. He has excellent numbers against Australia, in England, and at Lord's.

Usman Khawaja – Australia's Key Batsman

Usman Khawaja has the second-most runs in Tests since 2022, with 3043 runs at 51.57. He has an underwhelming run against India at home, but has been consistent against pace.

Aiden Markram – Australia's Weak Link

Aiden Markram has been far from consistent in Tests, and has a weak link against pace. He has been dismissed four times by Pat Cummins in Tests.

Temba Bavuma – South Africa's Captain

Temba Bavuma has led South Africa with distinction, and has had a fine run with the bat too, with 1690 runs at 49.70 in Tests since 2021. He has aggregated 655 runs against spin in the period, averaging 81.87.

Nathan Lyon – Australia's Experienced Bowler

Nathan Lyon has 553 Test wickets, and has been impressive since his return, with 57 wickets at an average of 23.15.