India look to break New Zealand and Ahmedabad jinx

Jonathan Trott contested the notion of India's home advantage, questioning if India in bilateral series and India in ICC tournaments are two different propositions. India went on to win that semifinal, seemingly debunking Trott's idea of a home jinx.

Yet those words carry an implicit caution for the Indian fan. With memories of the 2023 final still fresh and Pat Cummins' words about silencing 120,000 people still reverberating, an eerie resonance with that World Cup heartbreak lingers ahead of the T20 World Cup final against New Zealand at the same venue on Sunday night.

Mitchell Santner endorsed the thought of silencing a packed Narendra Modi Stadium but also spoke of variables in T20 cricket and the pressure of expectations on India at home. "Yeah I guess that's the goal isn't it, is to silence the crowd but I think that there are a lot of variables in T20 cricket and it is fickle at times," the New Zealand skipper said.

"For us it's taking confidence in that, that we can if we go about our business the same way we can upset another big team and I think there's obviously a lot of pressure on India to win this World Cup at home. So if we can go out there and try to put, I guess, the added pressure on them and see what happens."

Since November 2023, triumphs in the 2024 World Cup and the 2025 Champions Trophy have reinstated India as a powerful force. Over the last four weeks, Suryakumar Yadav's men have shown they can win the big moments. They are now favourites to become the first country ever to defend the T20 World Cup crown.

For India to defend the World Cup, a few things will need to fall back into place, particularly with Abhishek Sharma and Varun Chakaravarthy. The irony is that the two are currently the world No. 1 players in batting and bowling, yet there is debate over whether they should feature in the final.

Abhishek, considered the hottest batter going into the World Cup, has managed just 89 runs in eight games, while Chakaravarthy has become cannon fodder for opposition batsmen. India, with little choice but to persist with them in the final, will need them to perform. Suryakumar confirmed Chakaravarthy will not be replaced.

The sixth bowling option remains a concern, but most issues were clouded by the heroics of Sanju Samson and back-to-back victories against the West Indies and England. Suryakumar excelled with his incisive bowling changes in the semifinal, tactically maneuvering the death overs as India defended 45 runs off the last 18 balls. But more runs from the captain with the bat could help.

India will need to tackle New Zealand openers Finn Allen and Tim Seifert early, as they did in the semifinal against South Africa. It could mean Jasprit Bumrah may have to be summoned earlier than usual. New Zealand's batting is front and back-loaded, and India will need to stop the openers as well as skipper Mitchell Santner at the backend.

The match will likely be a high-scoring contest. The pitch, a mix of red and black soil, appears full of runs. But players will be worried about dew, which has affected several matches in this World Cup. It would hardly be fitting for a World Cup final to be decided by the toss.

When: Sunday, March 8, 2026 at 7 PM local time

Where: Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad

What to expect: A high-scoring contest. The pitch will be conducive for high scores. This is an opportunity for India to end their losing streak against New Zealand in T20 World Cups.

India: After their win over England, there have been calls to replace Varun Chakaravarthy and Abhishek Sharma with Kuldeep Yadav and Rinku Singh. The team management is expected to continue with the winning combination.

Probable XI: Suryakumar Yadav (C), Abhishek Sharma, Sanju Samson, Ishan Kishan (WK), Tilak Varma, Hardik Pandya, Axar Patel, Shivam Dube, Varun Chakaravarthy, Jasprit Bumrah, Arshdeep Singh.

New Zealand: Having played James Neesham over Ish Sodhi, New Zealand are expected to stick to the same combination, with batting depth a major factor. Mitchell Santner expects the surface to be "pretty flat and high scoring".

Probable XI: Tim Seifert (w), Finn Allen, Rachin Ravindra, Glenn Phillips, Mark Chapman, Daryl Mitchell, James Neesham, Mitchell Santner (c), Cole McConchie, Matt Henry, Lockie Ferguson.

This is the third ICC final in three different formats over the last six years between India and New Zealand: 2021 World Test Championship, 2025 Champions Trophy, and 2026 T20 World Cup.

New Zealand have a 2-1 record over India in ICC tournament finals, winning the CT 2000 and WTC 2021, and losing the Champions Trophy last year.

Head-to-head, India lead New Zealand 18-11 with one tie, but New Zealand have a 3-0 record over India in T20 World Cups: Johannesburg 2007, Nagpur 2016, and Dubai 2021.

India have made it to the final for the fourth time in T20 World Cups, the most for any team.

Six of the previous nine T20 WC finals have been won by the chasing side; of the other three, two were by India in 2007 and 2024, both last-over finishes.

"It's going to be obviously a challenge. Everyone knows we're probably not the favorites, but we don't mind. We know we can, if we do our little things well and put in a strong team performance, put us in a pretty good position to hopefully lift the trophy. But yeah, I wouldn't mind breaking a few hearts to lift the trophy for once." — Mitchell Santner