WTC Final Scenarios: India need SCG win and more

South Africa became the first side to qualify for the WTC finals after a tense two wicket win against Pakistan in Centurion. Three teams – Australia, India, and Sri Lanka – are in contention for the remaining spot to join South Africa at Lord's next June.

Points table (as of Dec 26, 2024)

Australia have closed in to seal a chance to defend their title at Lord's with the win in the Boxing day Test at the MCG against India. A win at SCG next week will seal a spot for them irrespective of the two games in Sri Lanka as it will take them to a win percentage of 57, which is beyond the reach of both India and Sri Lanka.

India are now comfortably behind the top two who are both well placed above 60. The defeat at MCG means for the first time in this cycle, they are no more in control of their fortunes. The best they can do is to win at the SCG to reach 55.26, and hope Australia don't win any Test in Sri Lanka.

If the scoreline against Australia ends 2-2 and both the Tests between Australia and Sri Lanka end in draws, both India and Australia will be tied on 55.26 with India progressing by virtue of more series wins (three for India to Australia's two). But if Australia gains anything more than eight points in Sri Lanka (two draws gives eight points), then they will finish ahead of India's 55.26.

A defeat or a draw in the final Test Down Under will end India's hopes of a third consecutive final appearance.