Tackling spin remains key for both teams to seal final berth

Tackling spin remains key for both teams to seal final berth

The average first innings total in Dubai read 239, significantly lower than both Lahore (316) and Karachi (271). Dubai has offered something for both spin and seam with the venue recording the most swing for seamers in the PowerPlay across the four venues. Seamers dominated the afternoons even with the older ball with the pitch offering hold, especially for bowlers who can hit the deck. Spinners have found more purchase in the night with enough turn and substantial grip from the wicket.

India will have to decide between a fourth spinner, or a second specialist seamer after Varun Chakaravarthy has made himself undroppable after his five-fer against New Zealand. Australia has one forced change with Matt Short ruled out of the tournament. They could bring in Cooper Connolly who can also offer part-time left-arm spin to share fifth bowler duties with Glenn Maxwell or they could bring in all-rounder Aaron Hardie who can double up as the change seamer and add another specialist spinner in Tanveer Sangha in place of one of their left-arm seamers.

Pace vs spin in Dubai in CT 2025

That Travis Head has been a thorn in the flesh for India in the recent times goes without saying. Since his comeback to the ODI setup in 2022, no player scores more rapidly than Head in the PowerPlay and maximizing this phase will be crucial in Dubai given how hard it gets to bat once the ball gets older. Head also has a great head-to-head against the Indian spin trio of Kuldeep-Axar-Jadeja in ODIs, scoring 123 runs at run a ball getting dismissed just once.

The slight chink in Head's armour has been early on in his innings with the ball going away from him from round the angle from right arm seamers. Head averages 22.25 for eight dismissals against right-arm seamers around the wicket in the PowerPlay compared to 56 over the wicket. This is the natural angle for Mohammed Shami against left handers as he delivers 91% of his deliveries to southpaws from this angle since 2023 and averages 18.92 with a wicket every 21.2 balls. In that night in Ahmedabad in November 2023, every delivery Head faced from Shami and Bumrah in the PowerPlay were from around the wicket, and they beat his bat 26.9% of the time without any luck. Left-arm seamers moving it away from Head over the wicket has also put him in a spot often and Arshdeep has got him twice in 30 balls in T20s, though it seems unlikely India will bring him into the XI.

Travis Head vs right arm seam in Powerplay since 2022

How will Australia tackle the spin threat?

Australia's leadup to Champions Trophy 2025 was not the most favourable having been spin-washed in the two ODIs in Sri Lanka, where they lost 15 of the 20 wickets to spin in dry conditions. The conditions in Dubai are likely to be not too different from that in Sri Lanka and India have a high quality spin attack to exploit whatever is on offer.

Despite extracting the least amount of turn in the game against New Zealand – a side proficient against playing spin – Chakaravarthy was found more than a handful to deal with. A lot of it is to do with the novelty factor and the pace at which he operates. This will be his first game against Australia in any format and only Steve Smith (10 balls, 14 runs, No dismissals) and Glenn Maxwell (30 balls, 46 runs, Three dismissals) have previous experience of playing him in IPL.

The sweep shot and its variants have been relatively risk-free against spin in the matches in Dubai (102 runs off 68 balls for two dismissals) and most of Australia's batters are adept in playing those shots. However, playing it against Chakaravarthy will be as tough as it gets as New Zealand found out on Sunday. Each of Australia's batters has a bugbear in India's attack and how Australia's batters navigate them in the middle overs will be the most critical factor that decides the outcome of the semifinal.

Shreyas Iyer – the most prized wicket

In a batting lineup that featured Rohit, Kohli, and Gill in the top three, it was Iyer that was considered the most important wicket in the scheme of things as far as Australia was considered ahead of the CWC 2023 final. 15 months later, little has changed, and Iyer has gone from strength to strength establishing him among the premier middle order batters in ODI cricket.

Australia have preferred to go with a four-man attack with Maxwell and Short filling in the fifth bowler quota. If Australia have to deploy ten overs of their lesser bowlers in the middle phase, it is unlikely that Iyer will let them have their way. He has an exceptional record against all kinds of spin and more so against off-spin. His record coming down the track against spin is exceptional and he starting to employ sweeps recently has helped him to open up new avenues of scoring in the middle overs. He has looked increasingly more assured against short balls off late and Australia don't have a bowler with the dual attributes of high pace and tall release who can trouble him with consistent short-pitched bowling.

While it was Cummins, Starc, and Hazlewood that dented India with the breakthroughs in Ahmedabad in November 2023, it was Adam Zampa's spell in the middle phase where he conceded just a solitary boundary across ten overs that created the pressure which his pace bowling partners could exploit. Zampa has positive matchups against seven of India's top eight batters, with only Kohli managing to average above 40 against him.

Zampa head to-head vs India's batters