Women's T20 WC Scenarios: India, SA in a tight race to the semis

With 80% of Group Stage games done at the ICC Women's T20 World Cup 2026, hosts England are the only ones to have confirmed a semi-final berth. In Group A, all four teams in action on Sunday (June 28) stand a chance, with six-time winners Australia almost there.

Match 29: BAN-W vs SA-W, Lord's, June 28
Match 30: AUS-W vs IND-W, Lord's, June 28

All NRR calculations assume a first-innings score of 150 unless specified otherwise.

Australia

Almost through but an improbable three-way tie with India and South Africa at 8 points each could see them miss out on NRR. Australia's NRR will fall behind India if they lose their final game with 11.5 overs to spare. For South Africa to overtake them, they'd need to beat Bangladesh by 209 runs after posting 250.

Note: Australia have won 24 of 27 matches across five T20 World Cup editions since 2018. Two of those three defeats came against India.

India

• Eliminated if they lose to Australia and South Africa beat Bangladesh earlier.
• Best case: Win against Australia, even if South Africa beat Bangladesh to finish on 8 points.

South Africa

Almost no chance to pip India on NRR in an 8-point tie. South Africa can surpass India's NRR (+2.268) only by beating Bangladesh by 167 runs after posting 200.

In a 6-point tie between India, South Africa, and Bangladesh: If Bangladesh beat South Africa in a Super Over (150 all), India would be knocked out only if they lose to Australia by 119+ runs (chasing 151) or 120+ runs (chasing 201).

• South Africa qualify without NRR if they beat Bangladesh and Australia beat India later.
• A loss to Bangladesh almost knocks them out, even if Australia beat India.

Bangladesh

Campaign effectively over. Mathematical chance exists in a three-way 6-point tie:

• If Bangladesh beat South Africa by 100 runs, their NRR rises to +0.462.
• India could fall behind only if they lose their final game by more than 130 runs.

For Group B scenarios, click here.