Favourites, rebels, and a fascinating World Cup semifinal

That South Africa have reached the T20 World Cup semifinals is surprising. That England aren't keen to claim outright favourite status for Thursday's match at the Oval is unsurprising.

This South African team has learnt to dig deep in tough times. They've won four of five games, but two successes – against Pakistan and Bangladesh – were unconvincing. Another, against the Netherlands, wasn't as straightforward as it should have been. Only against India, whom they beat by six wickets with five balls to spare, did they resemble a side that reached the final in the previous two editions.

"What's exciting is we've made the semis and probably haven't been at our best yet," Laura Wolvaardt said Wednesday. "We've found a way to win. It was frustrating in those games where we could have gotten over the line easier, but at the end of the day we got the points. We've chatted about killing the game earlier if we find ourselves in a similar position."

South Africa have progressed without a single major batting contribution from Wolvaardt, their all-time leading run-scorer in the format, who has failed to reach 50 in five innings. Consider that in her five previous T20I innings against India in April, she scored 51, 54, 115, 18, and 92 not out.

"I'm annoyed with my tournament because I felt in good form coming in," Wolvaardt said. "Maybe I'm trying to hit too hard – that's the pressure of a World Cup. It's not like I've forgotten how to bat."

England sailed into the knockouts unbeaten, never winning by fewer than 38 runs or with fewer than 15 balls remaining, and without Nat Sciver-Brunt for their last three matches. She's recovered from a calf injury and will return Thursday. All indications point to an England-Australia final at Lord's on Sunday.

Sciver-Brunt relished the opportunity to win on home soil: "You get the chance for family to come watch at most games, to see familiar faces in the crowd, and experience a crowd behind you." She added, "We also know where all the good coffee spots are in each city."

But if you're England, wouldn't you be nervous about these rebels with a cause? Opponents who win when they shouldn't are feared. That's South Africa at this tournament. Small wonder Sciver-Brunt spoke of a "huge match" and said her team were "prepared for the test."

Still, based on form, victory for South Africa would be a legitimate upset. England's leading batter, Danni Wyatt-Hodge, is the tournament's top run-scorer. South Africa's best, Tazmin Brits, is ninth despite also scoring a century. The bowling is more balanced – Marizanne Kapp is one wicket behind Sophie Ecclestone with a better economy rate, as is Nonkululeko Mlaba. But England have clicked as a unit; South Africa have scrapped their way here.

That will be cold comfort to the home side. If you've cruised into the final four untested, the last team you want is a bunch who haven't had an easy game yet and have kept winning regardless. Especially when they beat you in the semifinals of the 2025 ODI World Cup and the 2023 T20 World Cup.

England really should win. South Africa really don't mind being told that.