IPL 2025: Pedigree meets promise as MI and PBKS vie for a spot in the final

For Punjab Kings, the season began at the Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad, and whether or not they reach the final, it will end there as well. Shreyas Iyer and Ricky Ponting will be hoping for two more nights like March 25, when the Kings posted 243 for 5 and defeated Gujarat Titans by 11 runs.

However, after a bruising night at home against RCB, they run into a red-hot Mumbai Indians side. Entering Qualifier 2 with eight wins in their last 10 games, the five-time champions carry unbridled momentum.

Mumbai Indians have the stars, the experience and pedigree. Then they have Jasprit Bumrah, who brings a different kind of heft and aura to their attack. The opposition will have to deal with just 16 overs, discounting the four overs in which he gives very little away to the batters anyway. He has conceded only 276 runs in 11 games at an economy rate of just over six.

The likes of Bumrah, and, for that matter, Sunil Narine or Rashid Khan, are pushing data analysts to revisit their number crushing exercises. The emerging perception is that analytics must go beyond individual metrics and study the impact in partnerships.

Punjab Kings have arguably been one of the two best sides this season but they are up against an opposition who are at their fearsome best. The MI batting, led by Rohit Sharma and Suryakumar Yadav, has started firing on cylinders and even Tilak Varma, largely off-colour this season, has started stepping up. The bowling, spearheaded by Bumrah, is operating seamlessly. Even their new overseas recruits Jonny Bairstow and Richard Gleeson – essentially temporary replacements – came out of the blocks quickly and managed to move the needle.

"When you have a winning culture, it's easier to try and have that same thing going through," says Mahela Jayawardene, the MI head coach. "So, the conversations that we have is how can we get better? That winning mentality itself comes through from those senior players and having that experience does help. After the big auction, we had quite a few new faces, but I think telling them about the history of Mumbai and how we go, how we operate, and have that attitude that… will never die from a situation. We'll always fight through."

Regardless of the current form, it will be a battle between experience and exuberance, with Punjab Kings lacking the storied legacy and winning culture that Jayawardene boasts. The Kings' squad is largely made up of young, energetic players, and they've frequently fielded as many as six uncapped Indians in their XII.

Ponting and Iyer will need to devise a strategy to take on Mumbai Indians, a side that seems to have the personnel to handle any scenario and situation. The Kings, sure, have played fearless cricket this season, even managing to beat MI once, but Qualifier 2, effectively a semifinal, presents an entirely different challenge. In such high-stakes contests, experience is known to make a difference.

When: Sunday, June 1 at 7:30 PM IST

Where: Narendra Modi Stadium, Ahmedabad

What to expect: With the pitch under covers, making a prediction is tricky, but a high-scoring contest appears likely. Of the 14 innings played in Ahmedabad during IPL 2025, nine have seen totals in excess of 200, the most at any single venue in a single IPL season. That trend is expected to continue on Sunday night, unless one side suffers a dramatic meltdown, as Punjab did in Qualifier 1. Teams batting first have won six of the seven games with the only win for a chasing side coming in a day game. So the captain winning the toss may choose to bat.

Head-to-Head: MI trail PBKS 2-3 in recent battles (since 2022) but overall they enjoy a slight edge 17-16. MI's record in Qualifier 2 is 2-2 while PBKS have previously featured in Q2 only once – in 2014 – when they beat CSK by 24 runs.

Injuries/ Unavailability: No major injury concern and the word from the MI camp is Deepak Chahar, who missed out on Eliminator, is fit to take the field.

Tactics & Match-ups: MI are on a five-match losing streak at the venue, having won only game in six matches here, but those numbers should not faze the Hardik Pandya-led side. MI seamers have been in good form with the new ball, picking up 23 wickets at a strike rate of 21.6 and that should be a good antidote to contain the free-flowing stroke play of the Punjab openers.

Probable XII: Rohit Sharma, Jonny Bairstow (wk), Suryakumar Yadav, Tilak Varma, Hardik Pandya (c), Naman Dhir, Raj Bawa, Mitchell Santner, Trent Boult, Jasprit Bumrah, Richard Gleeson, Ashwani Kumar

Injuries/Unavailability: Barring Yuzvendra Chahal, who missed Qualifier 1, all others are fit. Chahal was seen actively bowling on the sidelines of covered pitch at the Narendra Modi Stadium on Saturday evening but he was seen doing the same routine on the eve of Qualifier 1 too. His availability is not guaranteed although not ruled out totally.

Tactics & Match-ups: Skipper Shreyas Iyer will be relieved to move away from New Chandigarh, where he has managed just 27 runs in five games. In contrast, he has scored 489 runs from 10 away matches this season. Ahmedabad, in particular, should lift his spirits. He began the season here with a dominating 97 versus GT. On the bowling front, Punjab Kings may look to Arshdeep Singh to counter Rohit Sharma. The left-arm pacer has dismissed Rohit once, and notably, Rohit has fallen to left-arm pace four times this season. Since 2024, he has scored 155 runs off 103 balls against left-arm quicks across eight games.

"The game against Delhi, when we got those three runouts and won was the turning point of our season. Because we were at that time five games, four losses, one win. That was a crucial match and Delhi was the top-of-the-table team. We did get a decent score but we didn't bowl well. It was a team win and that just gave us a lot of momentum." – Mahela Jayawardene on MI's turning point of the season

"Historically, Ahmedabad is a very good pitch and we know we're going to have to go quite hard and score quite quickly. It's not back to the drawing board by any means. We've worked two and a half months to get into a position where we get a second opportunity and we're going to have to use that second opportunity now." PBKS bowling James Hopes looking forward to bouncing back after the big loss in Q1