IPL 2026 Qualification Scenarios: Royals strengthen playoffs bid with win

Three sides have ensured qualification for the playoffs, with five other teams separated by a mere three points fighting for the last spot. Here's what's at stake for each side with the last half dozen fixtures left to play.

Points table after match #64 – RR vs LSG

Note: All NRR calculations presume team batting first scoring 200 in a full 20-over contest.

What last night's win means for Rajasthan Royals

Remaining fixtures: MI (A)

This win keeps their fate in their own hands.

• If RR beat MI: They reach 16 points and qualify regardless of other results. They could sneak into the top two if both GT and SRH lose their final games — RR would need a 70-run win if GT and SRH lose by 10 runs each.
• If RR lose to MI: They stay on 14 points. They'd need PBKS to lose to LSG, KKR to lose to MI and beat DC, and CSK to lose to GT. In that scenario, PBKS and KKR end on 13 points, CSK and DC on 12.
• On NRR tie at 14 points: RR (0.083) has a head start over CSK (-0.016) and DC (-0.871). Even if RR lose by 10 runs, CSK needs to win by 15+ runs against GT, while DC's task is near impossible.

How RR's win affects other contenders

If RR beats MI and reaches 16 points, all four teams below are eliminated.

The following scenarios apply only if MI beats RR, keeping RR on 14 points.

Punjab Kings & Kolkata Knight Riders

Remaining fixtures: LSG vs PBKS; KKR vs MI; KKR vs DC

• A win takes PBKS to 15 points, which only KKR can match. If PBKS beats LSG by 10 runs, KKR needs a combined winning margin of 72 runs across two games to surpass PBKS's NRR. If KKR drops one game, they max out at 13 points.
• KKR's ideal scenario: Win both remaining games and PBKS lose to LSG.

Chennai Super Kings

Remaining fixtures: GT (A)

• If CSK win, they tie on 14 points with RR and possibly DC (if DC beats KKR). This match becomes irrelevant if PBKS beats LSG or KKR wins both games. For NRR purposes, CSK needs a 25-run cushion over RR in a tie.
• A defeat to GT ends CSK's campaign — their third straight group-stage exit since winning the title in 2023.

Delhi Capitals

Remaining fixtures: KKR (A)

• Theoretically still alive, but practically impossible. Even if all results align for a 14-point tie, RR and DC are separated by over 200 runs on NRR.

What's happening at the top?

Remaining fixtures: GT vs CSK; SRH vs RCB

RCB, GT, and SRH have all qualified. All three have a shot at the top two.

• If RCB and GT win: They meet in Qualifier 1.
• If RCB and CSK win: RCB tops with 20 points. GT and SRH's NRR battle decides second — currently separated by about 13 runs. RR could also enter the mix if they beat MI.
• If SRH and GT win: Three-way tie on 18 points. For RCB to miss the top two, they must lose to SRH by 87 runs, and GT must beat CSK by around 76 runs.
• If SRH and CSK win: RCB and SRH finish as top two on 18 points each.