The 31 balls that won England the game

Jacob Bethell's late assault grabbed the headlines, but the decisive spell came much earlier. Between overs 13 and 18 of England's bowling innings, they tactically squeezed India.

At 130/2 in the 13th over, India looked set for a total well over par. Instead, they stumbled to 190, managing just 32/3 in a sequence of 31 balls as their win probability dropped from the early 70s to the mid-40s. India's captain Shreyas Iyer acknowledged the shift: "The way we were cruising until the 15th over… suddenly the momentum shifted."

On a ground where the average first-innings total since 2020 is 208, 190 was always likely to be light. England's squeeze through the middle overs ensured it stayed that way.

India had raced to 65, with Iyer in control, using the crease expertly against spin. But England wrestled the game back through smart tactical calls. After Iyer pulled Liam Dawson over deep midwicket, the left-arm spinner dragged his length back, bowling his slowest and widest delivery, inducing a mishit to a fielder on the boundary. India promoted Shivam Dube, but Harry Brook countered by bringing back Jofra Archer, who greeted Dube with a sharp bouncer that disrupted his rhythm.

Sam Curran and Will Jacks tightened the squeeze with four outstanding overs, constantly varying pace and lines. They conceded just two boundaries in that phase. Jacks operated from a back-of-a-length band, mixing pace and turn. Curran kept the ball outside the hitting arc, bowling 14 of his final 18 deliveries outside off stump, returning 2/15.

England's plans were backed by conditions. Old Trafford offered almost 24 cm more bounce than Chester-Le-Street. England responded by bowling good length or shorter with 67% of deliveries, conceding just 6.25 runs per over from those balls.

England read the surface quicker, won the tactical battle, and executed with far greater precision. Unless India respond more decisively, another slip could come at Trent Bridge on Tuesday.